Post-Conflict Exodus: Iran Expels Over 500,000 Afghans After Israel Ceasefire

In a dramatic escalation of its immigration policy, Iran has expelled over 500,000 Afghan citizens in just 16 days following the recent 12-day conflict with Israel. This rapid, large-scale deportation, described by the United Nations as one of the biggest forced displacements of the decade, has sparked alarm among humanitarian organizations.

According to a CNN report, between June 24 and July 9, an astonishing 508,000 Afghan nationals crossed the Iran-Afghanistan border. On one particular day, 51,000 individuals were expelled, marking the highest single-day figure recorded so far. The expulsions intensified after Iran issued an ultimatum for all undocumented Afghan citizens to leave the country by last Sunday.

Long-Planned Action Accelerated by Conflict?

Iran has long signaled its intention to deport undocumented Afghan immigrants, many of whom constitute a low-wage labor force in Iranian cities like Tehran, Mashhad, and Isfahan, working in sectors such as construction, cleaning, and agriculture. The sudden intensification of these actions immediately after the ceasefire with Israel suggests that the conflict may have provided a pretext or accelerated a pre-existing plan.

Unsubstantiated Espionage Claims and Growing Criticism

Iranian authorities have claimed that some Afghan citizens were spying for Israel, citing security concerns as a justification for the mass expulsions. Iranian state media has disseminated these allegations, even presenting an unconfirmed video of an Afghan youth allegedly confessing to providing location information to a handler in Germany for $2000. However, these claims largely lack independent evidence and have drawn skepticism from human rights organizations.

Critics argue that Iran has long been formulating plans for such an exodus and is now using these espionage charges as a convenient excuse. Human rights groups suggest that the government is targeting Afghans, who are already a vulnerable and exploited community, potentially to deflect from internal dissent or economic pressures.

Dire Conditions for Returnees in Afghanistan

The situation awaiting the expelled Afghans in their home country is dire. Border camps are struggling to cope with the influx, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius and limited basic facilities. This year alone, approximately 1.6 million Afghans have returned to Afghanistan from Iran and Pakistan, and the UNHCR estimates this number could reach 3 million by year-end.

Humanitarian agencies on the ground, including the UNHCR and Islamic Relief, report that services are completely overwhelmed. Many returnees arrive with nothing, facing severe shortages of food, water, shelter, and medical care. A significant number, especially women and children, are returning to a country they barely know, facing drastic changes to their rights and freedoms under the Taliban regime. Funding shortfalls are severely hampering aid efforts, with UNHCR's response only 28% funded as of July. Experts warn that such large-scale, often forcible, migration without proper investigation and legal process will only exacerbate the existing humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan.